VÀNG chờ lời khai của Warsh, đàm phán hòa bình Mỹ-Iran để có hướng đi rõ ràng

• Gold struggles for a clear direction as markets turn cautiously optimistic, with the US and Iran set to resume peace talks.   
• The US Dollar bounces amid profit-taking ahead of Fed Chair-nominee Warsh’s testimony and Tesla, Meta earnings report.   
• Gold eyes a daily close above the falling wedge resistance near $4,810 amid bearish crossovers and neutral RSI.

Gold is struggling near $4,800 in Asia on Tuesday, snapping two consecutive days of gains.

The yellow metal has remained sideways for over a week now as markets eagerly await the second round of peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran for a fresh and clear directional impetus.

Despite hopes for a deal to be struck as the talks are set to resume later this week, markets trade with caution as the US naval blockade of the Iranian ports persists alongside risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets also remain wary about a potential breakdown of peace talks, as it happened earlier this month, especially with the two-week ceasefire expiring on Wednesday and Trump showing reluctance to extend it.

Additionally, traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bullion, anticipating the testimony from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair-designate Kevin Warsh and earnings reports from American tech giants, Tesla, Meta, etc.

“Warsh’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking panel is scheduled to begin at 1400 GMT on Tuesday, with his independence from the Trump White House expected to be a key focus,” per Reuters.Warsh will say he is “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent,” according to his prepared remarks.

Beyond fundamentals, Gold’s technical setup on the daily chart also keeps investors on edge, as the bullion has been teasing a falling wedge breakout for the past week.

Phân tích kỹ thuật hàng ngày

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,807.54. The metal holds above a dense support band defined by the reclaimed downward trend-line break near $4,763, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4,728 and the 21-day SMA near $4,671, suggesting a constructive near-term bias as long as this area holds. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.17 is slightly positive and flat, hinting at steady rather than impulsive bullish momentum while price consolidates above the broader rising trend-line base.

On the downside, initial support is located in the $4,760–4,720 region, where the former descending resistance line, the 100-day SMA and the 21-day SMA cluster, followed by the rising trend-line zone around the mid-$4,500s and then the 200-day SMA near $4,230 if selling accelerates. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper boundary of the falling wedge near $4,81050-day SMA. A daily closing above that level is critical to confirm a bullish breakout, with the next resistance aligned the 50-day SMA around $4,890. A sustained move above this moving average would open the way for a more decisive recovery toward the recent highs, while failure to clear it would keep XAU/USD in a consolidation phase above its newly established support floor.