{"id":24248,"date":"2026-09-15T03:57:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T03:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=24248"},"modified":"2026-09-15T03:57:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T03:57:38","slug":"daily-commentary-466","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/daily-commentary-466-20260915\/","title":{"rendered":"$4,275\uff1a\u91d1\u50f9\u5982\u5c65\u8584\u51b0\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u5149\u4ecd\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u8207\u806f\u6e96\u6703"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul style=\"color:#f40307\" class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color\">\n<li><strong>Gold sees a tepid bounce above $4,300 early Tuesday, as the Fed meeting kicks off.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>US Dollar sits at weekly highs amid widening Mideast conflict, higher Oil prices and hawkish Fed bets.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold defends the key 50-day SMA at $4,275 for now, with RSI still below 50.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold\u00a0is briefly regaining $4,300 early Tuesday, looking to build on a tepid recovery from six-week troughs near $4,250. Traders are monitoring the widening conflict in the Middle East ahead of the two-day US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting later in the day.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the latest upswing, Gold remains vulnerable to further downside amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, elevated Oil price-driven inflation concerns, and hawkish bets around the Fed\u2019s policy outlook.<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, \u201cYemen&#x27;s Iran-backed militant group, Houthis, launched a new attack on Saudi Arabia after Riyadh blamed Iran-backed fighters in Iraq for an attack on the kingdom&#x27;s east-west pipeline. Gulf Arab states also postponed planned talks with Iran,\u201d per Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>Intensifying concerns over the US-Iran war translating into a full-fledged regional conflict in the Middle East and the resulting surge in Oil prices continue to keep the US Dollar (USD) underpinned near weekly highs against its major currency rivals. That, in turn, remains a risk for Gold\u2019s recovery.<\/p>\n<p>The Greenback also capitalizes on investors\u2019 doubts about the rapid development and usage of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly after calls by leading industry figures to slow its development.<\/p>\n<p>Further, a 92% probability of the Fed hiking rates this week, following a few upside surprises in the August inflation report and blockbuster Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, remains supportive of the recent USD uptrend, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields topping the 5% key level for the first time since 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Strategists at Scotiabank observe that recent market dynamics justify the Dollar\u2019s firm tone into the FOMC meeting, noting that \u201cin recent years, swaps pricing which indicated 70% or higher risk of a Fed rate move has been a near perfect indicator of a policy move, so dollar gains in response to swaps pricing is understandable.\u201d They caution, however, that \u201cthere are still some risk around the outlook,\u201d with the balance of scenarios skewed to how the Fed communicates its next steps. In their view, \u201can unchanged decision from the Fed would be a shock for markets and a clear negative for the USD,\u201d while even a \u201cdovish\u201d hike \u201cwhich does not obviously commit to additional moves would also likely weigh on the USD.\u201d Against this backdrop, Scotiabank judges that \u201cthe DXY is about fairly priced for where front-end spreads are right now,\u201d and argues that \u201cfurther DXY gains\u2014holding above the 100 level\u2014will need the support of a significant move in yield differentials,\u201d adding that \u201cit\u2019s not clear to us at this point that Fed is prepared to lift rates to that extent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That said, all eyes are now on the Fed&#x27;s view on future rate hikes, which will be highlighted by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot, considering that a rate hike and Chairman Kevin Warsh\u2019s limited words are a given.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, Middle East developments and position readjustments could drive Gold price action, leaving the bright metal subject to volatility.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-1024x390.png\" alt=\"Gold Technical Analysis\" class=\"wp-image-24249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-1024x390.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-1536x585.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gold-chart-2026-09-15.png 1647w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades at $4,310.80, holding a bearish near-term bias as it sits below the 21-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) while only modestly above the 50-day SMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 45 keeps a slightly negative tone, suggesting sellers retain the upper hand unless price can reclaim overhead moving-average barriers.<\/p>\n<p>On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-day SMA near $4,329.01, ahead of a stronger cap at the 21-day SMA around $4,450.09, while the 200-day SMA near $4,539.58 forms a broader bearish line in the sand. On the downside, the 50-day SMA at $4,275.85 offers first support; a clear break below this level would open the door to deeper corrective losses toward prior horizontal levels not yet in play on the current moving-average map.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold sees a tepid bounce above $4,300 early Tuesday, as the Fed meeting kicks off. US Dollar sits at weekly highs amid widening Mideast conflict, higher Oil prices and hawkish Fed bets. Gold defends the key 50-day SMA at $4,275 for now, with RSI still below 50. Gold\u00a0is briefly regaining $4,300 early Tuesday, looking to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/daily-commentary-466-20260915\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u3008$4,275: Gold skating on thin ice as eyes remain on Mideast conflict, Fed\u3009<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24248"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24250,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24248\/revisions\/24250"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meishengzz.com\/zh_tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}