XAU/USDは、米国の主要なNFPデータ発表を前に200日移動平均線を試している

• Gold sellers fight back control heading toward the US Nonfarm Payrolls release.
• The US Dollar Index enters bullish consolidation amid Gulf deadlock, hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold eyes US NFP report for the next major directionA sense of caution prevails across financial markets, with investors wary of a renewed flare-up in Middle East hostilities, as the US-Iran peace talks remain in limbo.

Gold is reversing a part of the previous rebound early Friday, back around the $4,450 level as markets trade with caution amid a deadlock in the Gulf conflict and ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

A sense of caution prevails across financial markets, with investors wary of a renewed flare-up in Middle East hostilities, as the US-Iran peace talks remain in limbo.

Meanwhile, the Iran-backed militant group, Hezbollah, rejected a US-brokered ceasefire plan agreed by the Lebanese and Israeli governments, throwing the regional peace negotiations into question.

This came after Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said that Israel will continue operations in Lebanon despite a ceasefire.

These lingering tensions offset any conciliatory remarks from US President Donald Trump on reaching a peace deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping risk-off flows intact alongside the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD).

The Greenback also continues to draw support from the recent slew of robust US economic data, which has bolstered Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations for this year.

Against this backdrop, the non-yielding and USD-sensitive bright metal, Gold. keeps facing headwinds, reverting to the critical daily support. The next major move in Gold now hinges on the critical NFP event risk.

Economists are expecting the headline NFP to rise by 85,000 in May, compared with an increase of 115,000 in April. The Unemployment Rate is likely to stay unchanged at 4.3% in the same period.

A big beat on the NFP headline could show US economic resilience and double down on hawkish Fed expectations, boding ill for the precious metal. On the other hand, an NFP disappointment could underscore labor market concerns, prompting markets to scale back their bets on a potential Fed rate hike later this year. This could be the breakout scenario for Gold bulls.

Besides the US jobs data, the Mideast developments and the end-of-the-week flows will also remain in play, significantly influencing the Gold trades.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,440.72. The metal holds just above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,432.66, but a stack of overhead resistance from the 21-day SMA near $4,551.55, the 50-day SMA at $4,629.55 and the more distant 100-day SMA at $4,796.18 keeps the near-term tone bearish. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 40 reinforces persistent downside pressure rather than a clear recovery.

On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $4,432.66 is the first and only notable support level, and a sustained break beneath it would likely expose deeper losses toward the $4,350 demand area, followed by the $4,300 round level. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,551.55, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,629.55 and then the 100-day SMA near $4,796.18, levels that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias.