Thỏa thuận hòa bình Mỹ-Iran củng cố đà phục hồi của XAU/USD khi giới đầu tư hướng sự chú ý vào Fed

• Gold extends its three-day recovery, surging nearly 3% on US-Iran peace deal optimism.
• The US Dollar holds losses amid diminishing safe-haven appeal and falling Oil prices.
• Technically, Gold needs to recapture the 200-day SMA at $4,454 to negate the near-term bearish outlook.

Gold is at its highest level in four days early Monday, above $4,300, extending the bullish opening gap and the recent recovery. The bright metal kicks off a new week with a bang, having hit year-to-date (YTD) lows near the $4,000 threshold last week.

Finally, almost a four-month-long war between the United States (US) and Iran came to an end after both sides reached an initial peace deal on Sunday, which will come into effect on Friday, June 19.

US President Trump said that the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately assure that the Strait of Hormuz is “permanently toll-free,” the New York Times reported on Sunday.

However, Trump said that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the US, he would resume military strikes on Tehran or make the US “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20 percent of the region’s revenues.

Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi noted: “A permanent and immediate end to the war has been declared on all fronts, including Lebanon.”

Asian stocks jump through the roof, with risk flows dictating amid renewed geopolitical optimism. Traders are dumping the so-called safe-haven USD in search of higher returns, providing additional legs to the USD-denominated Gold price.

Additionally, Gold draws support from the slump in oil prices, following the agreement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, helping alleviate inflationary concerns.

That could weigh on US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets and bode well for non-yielding assets such as the bright metal.

However, it remains to be seen whether Gold sustains its recovery momentum as many of the details of the deal remain unclear, especially around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Additionally, if Israel continues its aggression against Lebanon, it could threaten the peace agreement. Furthermore, traders could resort to repositioning their recent Gold longs before the all-important two-day Fed monetary policy meeting, starting Tuesday, the first one under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Gold’s technical setup on the daily chart also keeps the bearish bias in place in the near-term, leaving the bullion at risk of renewed downside.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,326.30, holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The clustering of these SMAs well above price suggests rallies are corrective within a broader downside phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 hints at only modest negative momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 21-day SMA near $4,421, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,454, where a recovery would likely face its first significant supply zone. Further up, the 50-day SMA at roughly $4,581 and the 100-day SMA near $4,762 form a higher resistance band that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish technical structure.